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Numéro 180 - Juillet 2023

Perspectives économiques 2023-2024

Aurélie Bertrand, Vincent Bodart, Florian De Bundel, Alain Guillet, Nathan Lachapelle, Mathilde Pourtois, Mathieu Sauvenier, Leïla Van Keirsbilck

RE180Selon les données récentes des comptes nationaux, le rythme de croissance de l’économie belge s’est sensiblement raffermi en début d’année, le PIB national ayant augmenté de 0,5% entre décembre 2022 et mars 2023. Il ressort par ailleurs de l’évolution récente de plusieurs indicateurs conjoncturels que l’économie belge a progressé au même rythme soutenu au cours du 2ème trimestre.

Malgré le repli important des prix de l’énergie, la croissance de l’économie belge ne devrait pas rester aussi soutenue sur l’ensemble de la période de projection. On s’attend en effet à ce que la dynamique de croissance soit prochainement bridée par les hausses répétées des taux d’intérêt, par le lent recul de l’inflation sous-jacente et un ralentissement de la croissance du pouvoir d’achat, ainsi que par le manque d’optimisme des ménages et des entreprises. Par ailleurs, la croissance de l’économie mondiale reste faible et, du fait du prolongement de la guerre en Ukraine, l’incertitude continue à être élevée.

En 2023, la croissance annuelle moyenne de l’économie belge devrait être de 1,4%. Elle serait à peine différente en 2024, à 1,3%. Un peu plus de 100.000 emplois seraient créés sur les deux années de la période de projection. En raison d’une forte hausse de la population active, le chômage augmenterait en 2023, avant de repartir à la baisse en 2024. S’agissant de l’inflation, la croissance sur un an de l’indice général des prix à la consommation devrait faiblir jusqu’à 0,9% fin 2023 avant de remonter à 4,3% fin 2024.


Résumé des prévisions

• L’économie belge devrait croître de 1,4% en 2023 et de 1,3% en 2024.
• L’emploi augmenterait d’environ 45.000 unités en 2023 et de 56.000 unités en 2024.
• Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi augmenterait de 14.000 unités en 2023, mais il diminuerait de 15.000 unités en 2024.
• L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait en moyenne à 3,8% en 2023 et en 2024.
• Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques atteindrait 5,0% en 2023 et 4,6% en 2024.

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On en parle dans la presse...

  • L'Echo, 7.07.2023 : "Trois dépassements de l’indice pivot d’ici la fin 2024, prévoit l’Ires", article Print
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