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Numéro 94 - Décembre 2011

Perspectives économiques 2012

Vincent Bodart, Jean-François Carpantier, Guy Legros, Vanessa Lutgen, Joël Machado, Catherine Smith

94Les hésitations de la reprise économique mondiale, l’aggravation de la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe, les risques d’une nouvelle crise financière et les difficultés budgétaires de nombreux pays avancés ont fortement entamé la confiance des agents économiques de par le monde durant la seconde moitié de 2011. Du fait de ce climat d’incertitudes et d’inquiétudes, les perspectives économiques pour 2012 se sont fortement assombries. De surcroît, la croissance économique en 2012 sera affaiblie par les programmes d’austérité budgétaire mis en place simultanément dans de nombreux pays avancés, notamment en Europe. L’économie belge n’échappe pas à ces différents problèmes et faiblesses et elle devrait être en légère récession en 2012. Face à l’étendue de la crise de confiance et l’ampleur de l’ajustement budgétaire prévu dans l’accord de gouvernement, nous avons en effet fortement revu à la baisse notre prévision de croissance du PIB belge pour 2012, qui s’établit à présent à - 0,3 % contre 1,5 % dans notre étude publiée en octobre.

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