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Numéro 101 - Janvier 2013

Perspectives économiques 2013

Rytis Bagdziunas, Vincent Bodart, Vanessa Lutgen, Joël Machado, Catherine Smith

RE101A la lueur des développements économiques les plus récents, la conjoncture économique belge suscite à nouveau de fortes inquiétudes. L'activité en volume a en effet stagné au 3ème trimestre 2012 après avoir fortement reculé au 2ème trimestre, l'emploi a de nouveau diminué au 3ème trimestre, pour la 3ème fois consécutive, le chômage continue à augmenter, le climat des affaires demeure affaibli et la confiance des ménages a sombré à un niveau proche de celui auquel elle était tombée lors de la crise économique et financière de 2008-2009. Au plan international, la conjoncture économique demeure fortement déprimée dans la zone euro, la croissance reste modeste aux Etats-Unis et elle est moins soutenue que par le passé dans les pays émergents. Dans ce contexte globalement morose, il est probable que la croissance économique en Belgique aura à nouveau reculé au dernier trimestre 2012 et qu'elle restera faible durant la première moitié de 2013. Dans notre analyse d'octobre dernier, nous prévoyions une reprise progressive de l'activité en 2013 en comptant sur un rétablissement progressif de la confiance des ménages et des entreprises. Nous confirmons cette prédiction mais nous estimons cependant à présent que la reprise débutera plus tard que ce que nous pressentions il y a 3 mois. C'est la raison pour laquelle notre prévision de croissance pour 2013 a été ramenée à 0,3 % alors que nous l'avions fixée à 0,8 % il y a 3 mois.

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