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Numéro 149 - Juillet 2019

Perspectives économiques 2019-2020

Gautier Attanasi, Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy, Sébastien Fontenay, Alexandre Ounnas, Mathieu Sauvenier

RE149Malgré de nombreuses créations d’emplois, un chômage au plus bas et une hausse significative du pouvoir d’achat, l’économie belge progresse toujours lentement. Sa croissance devrait rester faible sur l’ensemble de la période de projection. L’environnement international s’est en effet assombri, la croissance économique en zone euro ayant notamment fortement ralenti. L’expansion de l’économie belge devrait dès lors reposer avant tout sur la demande intérieure mais, en raison de la dégradation de la confiance des ménages et des entreprises, la progression de celle-ci serait considérablement freinée sur la période de projection. Dans ce contexte, la croissance de l’économie belge resterait limitée à 1,1 % en 2019 et 1,2 % en 2020.

En résumé, nos prévisions macroéconomiques pour 2019-2020 sont les suivantes :

• L’économie belge devrait croître de 1,1 % en 2019 et 1,2 % en 2020.
• L’emploi augmenterait, en termes nets, de 51.000 unités en 2019 et 32.000 unités en 2020.
• Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi diminuerait de 14.500 unités en 2019 et 9.500 unités en 2020.
• L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait à 1,6 % en 2019 et 1,4 % en 2020.
• Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques s’élargirait à 1,3 % du PIB en 2019 et 1,7 % en 2020.

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