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Numéro 161 - Mars 2021

L’or protège-t-il contre l’inflation ?

Jean-François Carpantier

RE161L’or est étroitement mêlé à l’histoire des hommes, étant tour à tour chair des dieux égyptiens, matière des premières pièces de monnaie, promesse de liberté lors des ruées vers l'or et ancrage du système monétaire international. Aujourd’hui, alors qu’il ne joue plus de rôle officiel dans nos systèmes monétaires, l’or continue de susciter l’intérêt des investisseurs.

En août 2020, le prix de l’or a atteint un nouveau sommet en dépassant ponctuellement les 2.000 dollars l’once. L’investissement est tentant. Les vertus présumées de l’or sont multiples. Certains y voient un refuge lorsque le climat économico-financier se dégrade, d’autres une couverture contre les fluctuations du dollar américain, d’autres un moyen de se protéger de l’inflation. Et justement, les craintes d'un retour de l'inflation ressurgissent, au vu des niveaux d'endettement de nos économies.

Dans ce numéro de Regards économiques, nous testons la validité de cette dernière vertu : la propriété qu'aurait l'or de protéger contre l’inflation. L’originalité de notre approche est non pas d’évaluer la capacité propre de l’or à préserver le pouvoir d’achat, mais plutôt sa performance relative par rapport à d’autres matières premières que sont, par exemple, le pétrole, le cuivre ou le blé. En nous appuyant sur différentes techniques statistiques, nous montrons que la réputation de l'or est surfaite, l'or n'étant pas plus apte à protéger contre l’inflation que ne l’est le maïs, le nickel, le pétrole ou toute autre matière première.

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