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Numéro 183 - Mars 2024

Sociale duurzaamheid van pensioenen: compensatie voor zware beroepen en ongelijk levensduur

Laurent Collot, Jean Hindriks

RE183 Nl4Een van de fundamentele uitdagingen voor ons pensioenstelsel is om gepensioneerden een adequate levensstandaard te garanderen in een context waarin de vergrijzing van de bevolking ons dwingt om de leeftijd waarop mensen hun pensioen kunnen opnemen te verschuiven. Hoe kunnen we mensen aanmoedigen om langer te werken zonder degenen die dat niet kunnen te straffen, terwijl het aantal mensen met een ziekte- of arbeidsongeschiktheidsuitkering voortdurend toeneemt? Het verlagen van pensioenen voor mensen die de arbeidsmarkt voortijdig verlaten is oneerlijk, omdat het vaak werknemers met lage inkomens en laaggeschoolden zijn die hierdoor worden getroffen. Het belonen van degenen die kunnen doorwerken tot hun pensioenleeftijd met een bonus, zoals voorgesteld in de hervorming van juli 2023, is ook oneerlijk tegenover degenen die niet tot die leeftijd kunnen doorwerken. Het is des te oneerlijker omdat deze laaggeschoolde mensen die de arbeidsmarkt vroeg verlaten hun carrière eerder zijn begonnen, minder welvarend zijn, een slechtere gezondheid hebben en een kortere levensverwachting hebben. Concreet sterft een kwart van de mensen in het eerste inkomenskwintiel (die de 20% van de bevolking met het laagste inkomen vertegenwoordigt) vóór de leeftijd van 65 jaar, vergeleken met 1/20 van de mensen in het laatste kwintiel (die de 20% van de bevolking met het hoogste inkomen vertegenwoordigt).

De kwestie van zwaar werk is des te crucialer omdat de pensioenhervorming de pensioengerechtigde leeftijd geleidelijk heeft verhoogd naar 66 jaar in 2025 en 67 jaar in 2030, met de bedoeling een uitzondering in te voeren voor mensen met zware beroepen. Dit is er niet van gekomen en vandaag ligt er een verzoek om de pensioengerechtigde leeftijd te verlagen naar 65 jaar met de bekende retoriek: "op 67 jaar zijn alle banen zwaar". Dit voorstel is buitensporig, omdat we gemiddeld allemaal langer leven.

In zijn aanvullend advies van maart 2015 stelde de Academische Raad Pensioenen een flexibele pensioenleeftijd voor: "wie een zware job heeft, moet dankzij de algemene flexibiliteit in het systeem de mogelijkheid hebben om vroeger met pensioen te gaan dan wie geen zware job heeft gehad, met een pensioenbedrag dat niettemin vergelijkbaar is".

Ons argument is dat jobs inderdaad verschillen in moeilijkheidsgraad en dat moeilijke jobs vaker voorkomen in de lager geschoolde, lager betaalde groepen. Deze mensen beginnen eerder met werken en zijn sneller "versleten" door het werk (fysieke vermoeidheid, stress en onzekerheid). Zij zouden redelijkerwijs eerder met pensioen moeten kunnen gaan zonder hun pensioen te verliezen.

We stellen daarom een praktisch mechanisme voor dat het mogelijk maakt om een tweeledige correctie te bereiken: (i) degenen die hun carrière eerder zijn begonnen eerder met pensioen laten gaan en (ii) degenen in "zware" beroepen een kortere carrière gunnen.

Wat de definitie van zware beroepen betreft, bestaat onze benadering erin een vast budget toe te wijzen voor de financiering van zware beroepen dat afneemt met het loonkwintiel en het vervolgens aan de sociale partners over te laten om te beslissen hoe dit vaste budget binnen elk loonkwintiel wordt verdeeld.

We berekenen de budgettaire kosten van onze compensatie op basis van de enveloppe en de verdeling ervan, die we financieren door de hoogste pensioenen aan te passen. Het systeem is dus "zelfvoorzienend". Een verrassend resultaat van onze analyse is dat rekening houden met de zwaarte van loopbanen, beperkt tot laagbetaalde werknemers, geen onoverkomelijke last legt op beter betaalde werknemers. Ter illustratie: ons referentiescenario impliceert een pensioenverlies van ongeveer 1% voor het 4e kwintiel en 4,7% voor het 5e kwintiel, terwijl respectievelijk 3, 2 en 1 jaar vervroegde uittreding wordt toegekend aan de 1st, 2e en 3e loonkwintielen.

De simulator "Pensions et Pénibilité" van Laurent Collot en Jean Hindriks is hier beschikbaar (in het Frans): simulator

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