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Numéro 185 - Juillet 2024

Perspectives économiques 2024-2025

Aurélie Bertrand, Vincent Bodart, Margaux Clarr, Florian De Bundel, Charles De Pierpont, Alain Guillet, Nathan Lachapelle, Vincent Notte, Leïla Van Keirsbilck

RE185Au 1er trimestre 2024, l’économie belge a progressé de 0,3% qoq, ce rythme étant identique à celui des trois trimestres précédents. Avec cette nouvelle progression, le PIB se situait, fin mars 2024, 1,3% au-dessus de son niveau un an plus tôt.

Au 1er trimestre 2024, l’activité industrielle a enregistré une progression légèrement positive, après avoir été en recul durant 5 trimestres consécutifs. L’activité a continué à progresser dans les services, mais à un rythme ralenti par rapport à celui des 4 trimestres précédents. Dans la construction, l’activité s’est en revanche contractée au 1er trimestre 2024, après 5 trimestres de hausse significative. Du côté de la demande, le constat est celui d’une croissance modérée en ce début d’année, tant pour les dépenses intérieures (en particulier la consommation des ménages et l’investissement des entreprises) que pour les exportations. Pour ce qui concerne la situation du marché du travail, les créations d’emplois sont redevenues plus nombreuses en ce début d’année, après avoir faibli durant les trois trimestres précédents. Le chômage a de ce fait diminué entre décembre 2023 et mai 2024 et le pourcentage de la population au chômage reste faible (5,8% en avril 2024). Après avoir connu un rebond en février, l’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’est relevée plus légèrement au 2ème trimestre. En juin, elle était de 3,7%, comparativement à 1,4% fin 2023 et à 4,2% un an plus tôt.

Alors qu’il était en baisse depuis la fin 2023, le sentiment de confiance des ménages s’est soudainement fortement amélioré en juin. L’ampleur du rebond étant inhabituellement élevé, cette amélioration pourrait rapidement se dissiper. Pour ce qui concerne la confiance des entreprises, celle-ci s’est quelque peu améliorée au fil des mois récents mais, au terme du premier semestre, elle se cantonnait toujours en deçà de sa moyenne de longue période, ce qui ne laisse entrevoir qu’une croissance modérée de l’activité économique au cours des prochains mois.

Résumé des prévisions
• L’économie belge devrait croître de 1,3% en 2024 et 2025.
• L’emploi augmenterait d’environ 70.000 unités entre fin 2023 et fin 2025.
• Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi augmenterait de 21.000 unités entre fin 2023 et fin 2025.
• L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait en moyenne à 3,1% en 2024 et 2,2% en 2025.
• Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques augmenterait à 4,8% en 2024 et 5,3% en 2025.

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