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Numéro 187 - Janvier 2025

Perspectives économiques 2025

Aurélie Bertrand, Vincent Bodart, Margaux Clarr, Florian De Bundel, Charles De Pierpont, Alain Guillet, Nathan Lachapelle, Vincent Notte, Leïla Van Keirsbilck

RE187Au 3ème trimestre 2024, l’économie belge a progressé de 0,3% comparativement au trimestre précédent, ce rythme de croissance étant similaire à celui des deux premiers trimestres. Nos estimations indiquent que l’économie belge a conservé ce rythme de croissance au 4ème trimestre, ce qui porte sa croissance moyenne sur l’ensemble de l’année à 1,0%.

En 2025, la croissance de l’économie belge devrait rester modeste. Fin 2024, la confiance des ménages et celle des entreprises étaient en effet toujours fragiles. En particulier, la conjoncture industrielle demeure fortement déprimée, en raison d’une faiblesse persistante de la demande. L’emploi n’a par ailleurs que très faiblement progressé en 2024. Du fait de la baisse de l’inflation et des taux d’intérêt, la croissance de l’économie belge pourrait néanmoins être un peu plus soutenue qu’elle ne l’a été en 2024. Nous prévoyons ainsi qu’elle atteindra 1,3% en base annuelle moyenne. Elle serait à nouveau principalement soutenue par la consommation des ménages même si l’investissement et les exportations pourraient se raffermir en seconde partie d’année.

En 2025, les créations d’emploi devraient progressivement redevenir plus nombreuses, ce qui aura pour effet de freiner la progression du chômage (cf. résumé des prévisions).

Fin 2024, le taux d’inflation générale était de 3,2%, comparativement à 1,4% fin 2023. L’inflation devrait recommencer à faiblir en 2025, où elle atteindrait 1,8% en fin d’année.

Résumé des prévisions

  • L’économie belge devrait croître de 1,3% en 2025.
  • L’emploi augmenterait de 39.000 unités entre fin 2024 et fin 2025.
  • Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi inoccupés augmenterait de 10.000 unités entre fin 2024 et fin 2025.
  • L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait en moyenne à 2,4% en 2025.
  • Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques s’élèverait à 4,7% en 2025.

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