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Numéro 167 - Janvier 2022

Perspectives économiques 2022

Arno Baurin, Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy, Guillaume Dallemagne, Nathan Lachapelle, Alexandre Ounnas, Mathilde Pourtois, Mathieu Sauvenier

RE167Alors que la croissance de l’économie belge fut très soutenue durant une large partie de l’année écoulée, nos estimations indiquent que celle-ci a considérablement ralenti en fin d’année. Les principaux facteurs explicatifs de ce ralentissement sont la dégradation de la situation sanitaire, les difficultés rencontrées par les entreprises pour accroître leur production, et une forte hausse de l’inflation.

Ces facteurs devraient continuer à freiner considérablement la croissance de l’économie belge début 2022. Le risque sanitaire posé par la variant Omicron a ainsi contraint la Belgique et ses voisins européens à réinstaurer des mesures sanitaires strictes. Les contraintes d’offre sont par ailleurs encore importantes.

Au-delà du court terme, en comptant sur une amélioration des conditions sanitaires à partir de la fin de l’hiver et sur une diminution des perturbations dans les chaînes mondiales d’approvisionnement, la croissance économique belge se raffermirait, sans pour autant être aussi soutenue qu’elle ne l’a été en 2021.

Selon nos prévisions, l’économie belge progresserait de 3,0% en 2022, après une forte progression de 6,1% en 2021. L’emploi, qui a fortement augmenté 2021, augmenterait encore de manière significative en 2022, de sorte que le chômage continuerait à reculer. Enfin, la hausse des prix devrait progressivement ralentir en 2022.

 

Résumé des prévisions

• L’économie belge devrait croître de 3,0% en 2022.
• L’emploi augmenterait d’environ 37.000 unités en 2022.
• Le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi diminuerait d’environ 13.000 unités en 2022.
• L’inflation générale des prix à la consommation s’élèverait à 3,8% en 2022.
• Le déficit budgétaire des administrations publiques atteindrait 3,2% en 2022.

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